engleski

Advanced Market Share Modelling Based on Markov Chains

Methods for Markov chain transition probabilities determination and its usage for market share forecasting are investigated. Resulting transition probabilities can indicate what would happen if forces on telecommunications market remain the same. It is shown that transition probabilities have descriptive features related to Churn, Churn rate, Gross Add and Net Add parameters. The new concept of Markov chains based on diffusion growth model principles (MCDG) is introduced and examined on the case of fixed broadband access technology diffusion. The MCDG model is suitable for modelling of diffusion of innovation and new technology, market adoption of consumer durables or subscription products (for example, telecommunications services) for the whole PLC.

Markov chain; telecommunications market forecasting

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