engleski

The next EU enlargement and Euro-Mediterranean relations

The objective of the paper is to examine possible impact of the next round of the enlargement of the EU to the development of institutional and economic relations between the EU and Mediterranean countries (North-South co-operation), and in the Mediterranean region (South-South co-operation). The possible effects of the enlargement are examined through perspective of regional and subregional associations in the Mediterranean region, as well as from perspective of selected countries of the region (Turkey, Cyprus, Malta, Morocco, Israel) which have quite different relations with the EU. The paper also examines whether combination of bilateral agreements with the EU and creation of regional free-trade zone is a suitable model for acceleration of economic transition and modernisation in neighbouring regions of the EU which are not included in the integration process (Southeast Europe). The paper rests on the hypothesis that the intra-regional and sub-regional co-operation and integration have outstanding importance for improvement of economic performance. South-South Cooperation should enhance the complementarily of the Mediterranean Partners' economies and thereby contribute to increased trade flows between them which have considerable growth potential (trade in goods within the region at present makes up only about 7% of the regional trade volume). Comparative analysis of EU relations with Mediterranean countries and countries of Central and Eastern Europe and Southeast Europe is conducted, in order to determine whether South-South co-operation is a suitable means for fostering economic development and improvement of links with the EU. When appropriate, econometric models such as GTAP model and gravity models are used. Official statistics data (Eurostat and data of national statistics bodies) are used. Comparative research of the component units is carried out in order to verify the conclusions.

enlargement ; North-South cooperation ; free-trade zones ; transition

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