engleski

Analysis of economic risks in selection of optimum wastewater system in rural communities

In the choice of the optimum system, the greatest emphasis is usually attributed to the economic criterion. All elements involved in economic analysis requiring any form of assessment bear a certain degree of risk which may result in financial loss during the project life of the system. The paper defines and presents the basic types of economic risks, as well as the methodology of testing the sensitivity of the results of economic analysis (determination of net present values of each of the discussed alternatives), in relation to different values of individual parameters. The method chosen for sensitivity analysis is the Monte Carlo simulation. Although the proposed methodology allows discreet step-by-step sensitivity analysis, by changing the values of an input data and following the changes of the results, Monte Carlo simulation may provide clear insight into possible ranges and probabilities of results of discussed scenarios, in dependence of a selected group of input parameter variables. By the proposed sensitivity analysis, it is possible to see the limits of individual parameters expressing cost-(in)effectiveness of individual solutions. This allows realistic insight into economic cost-effectiveness of different solutions, which will finally result in the selection of the optimum solution of wastewater collection and treatment.

Economic risks; Monte Carlo simulation; Wastewater

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