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An improved Prediction for the Solar Cycle 24


Verbanac, Giuliana; Brajša, Roman; Cliver, Edward; Svalgaard, Leif; Hubertus, Wohl; Roth, Markus; Hanslmeier, Arnold
An improved Prediction for the Solar Cycle 24 // Proceedings of 11th Scientific Assembly of IAGA, August 23-30 2009, Sopron, Hungary
Sopron, Hungary, 2009. (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, sažetak, znanstveni)


Naslov
An improved Prediction for the Solar Cycle 24

Autori
Verbanac, Giuliana ; Brajša, Roman ; Cliver, Edward ; Svalgaard, Leif ; Hubertus, Wohl ; Roth, Markus ; Hanslmeier, Arnold

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of 11th Scientific Assembly of IAGA, August 23-30 2009, Sopron, Hungary / - , 2009

Skup
11th Scientific Assembly of IAGA

Mjesto i datum
Sopron, Hungary, 23-30.08.2009

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Sun; activity

Sažetak
Using a combined method, the strength and epochs for the next 24th solar cycle are predicted. This method consists of three parts: (1) the calculation of the asymmetry of the duration of the ascending and descending solar cycle parts, (2) the correlation of the relative sunspot numbers in and around solar activity minima and the following activity maxima and (3) the method of the autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) applied to the relative sunspot number data measured up to now. Our data sets comprise yearly, corrected yearly, monthly and smoothed monthly relative sunspot number values. A cross correlation analysis with different time lags in the activity minimum for the method (2) is performed. With these combined procedures we estimate a lower amplitude of the next solar maximum in comparison to the previous one.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Fizika



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekt / tema
119-1193086-1314 - Istraživanje geomagnetskog polja i nehomogenosti litosfere u području Hrvatske (Davorka Herak, )

Ustanove
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb