hrvatski

Judgemental Forecasting Support Models

A challenge in judgemental forecasting is to benefit from human expert knowledge, but in the same time avoid limitations on the information processing and computing abilities of human forecasters. Judgemental forecaster should also fulfil desire for good explanation of forecasts. The paper argues that system dynamics can help to meet this challenge and avoid intuitively correct forecasts that are actually result of "bounded rationality". System dynamics is also an excellent vehicle for communication with forecast "consumers". Forrester"s "Market Growth Model" is used to illustrate the way of using system dynamics models as an aid in judgemental forecasting.

judgemental forecasting; system dynamics; bounded rationality; scenario forecast

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