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Judgemental Forecasting Support Models


Labaš, Mirjana
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models // Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces / Kalpić, Damir ; Hljuz Dobrić, Vesna (ur.).
Zagreb: University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, J. Marohnića, 1997. str. 483-488 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)


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Naslov
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models

Autori
Labaš, Mirjana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces / Kalpić, Damir ; Hljuz Dobrić, Vesna - Zagreb : University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, J. Marohnića, 1997, 483-488

Skup
Information Technology Interfaces "97

Mjesto i datum
Pula, Hrvatska, 17-20.06.1997

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
judgemental forecasting; system dynamics; bounded rationality; scenario forecast

Sažetak
A challenge in judgemental forecasting is to benefit from human expert knowledge, but in the same time avoid limitations on the information processing and computing abilities of human forecasters. Judgemental forecaster should also fulfil desire for good explanation of forecasts. The paper argues that system dynamics can help to meet this challenge and avoid intuitively correct forecasts that are actually result of "bounded rationality". System dynamics is also an excellent vehicle for communication with forecast "consumers". Forrester"s "Market Growth Model" is used to illustrate the way of using system dynamics models as an aid in judgemental forecasting.

Izvorni jezik
Hrvatski

Znanstvena područja
Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekti:
067003

Ustanove:
Ekonomski fakultet, Zagreb


Citiraj ovu publikaciju:

Labaš, Mirjana
Judgemental Forecasting Support Models // Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces / Kalpić, Damir ; Hljuz Dobrić, Vesna (ur.).
Zagreb: University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, J. Marohnića, 1997. str. 483-488 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)
Labaš, M. (1997) Judgemental Forecasting Support Models. U: Kalpić, D. & Hljuz Dobrić, V. (ur.)Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Information Technology Interfaces.
@article{article, author = {Laba\v{s}, Mirjana}, year = {1997}, pages = {483-488}, keywords = {judgemental forecasting, system dynamics, bounded rationality, scenario forecast}, title = {Judgemental Forecasting Support Models}, keyword = {judgemental forecasting, system dynamics, bounded rationality, scenario forecast}, publisher = {University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, J. Marohni\'{c}a}, publisherplace = {Pula, Hrvatska} }
@article{article, author = {Laba\v{s}, Mirjana}, year = {1997}, pages = {483-488}, keywords = {judgemental forecasting, system dynamics, bounded rationality, scenario forecast}, title = {Judgemental Forecasting Support Models}, keyword = {judgemental forecasting, system dynamics, bounded rationality, scenario forecast}, publisher = {University Computing Centre, University of Zagreb, J. Marohni\'{c}a}, publisherplace = {Pula, Hrvatska} }




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