Bayesian Approach to Decision Making on Investing in Bonds (CROSBI ID 464067)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Pejić-Bach, Mirjana
engleski
Bayesian Approach to Decision Making on Investing in Bonds
In decision making on investing in bonds point estimates of interest rates labelled as "forecasts" are often produced by human experts, who tend to overreact and overestimate future interest rates. Combination of judgemental forecasts and other forecasts (statistical, market, survey) under formal rules may be superior because it helps in avoiding judgemental biases. Bayesian decision aiding technique using normal distribution is presented to illustrate how investors may combine forecasts and in doing so boost their chance of success.
Bayesian decision analysis; investing; bonds; combining forecasts
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Podaci o prilogu
309-314-x.
1997.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
SOR "97 Proceedings
Rupnik, V., Zadnik Stirn L., Drobne S.
Ljubljana: Slovensko društvo informatika
Podaci o skupu
The 4th International Symposium on Operational Research in Slovenia
predavanje
01.10.1997-03.10.1997
Preddvor, Slovenija