engleski

Availability of nuclear fuel for long-term expansion of nuclear power

The basic issue in consideration the contribution of nuclear power to solving the world’ s energy problem in the future is the availability of uranium resources and its adequacy in meeting the future needs of nuclear capacity. Increased interest in nuclear energy is evident, and a new look into uranium resources is relevant. We examined world’ s uranium resource availability in relation to the expected growth in the world nuclear power. The recent data on uranium and thorium resources are presented. Three different scenarios of nuclear capacity growth were examined. The low growth of 0.4% per year in nuclear capacity is assumed for the first scenario. The moderate growth of 1.5% per year in nuclear capacity preserving the present share in total energy production is assumed for the second scenario. We estimated draining out time periods for conventional resources of uranium using once through fuel cycle for the both scenarios. For the first and the second scenario we obtained the draining out time periods for conventional uranium resources of 154 years and 96 years, respectively. These results are, as expected, in agreement with usual evaluations. However, if nuclear energy is to make a major impact on CO2 emission it should contribute much more in the total energy production than at present level of 6%. We therefore defined the third scenario which would increase nuclear share in the total energy production from 6% in year 2020 to 30% by year 2060 while the total world energy production would grow by 1.5% per year. We also looked into the uranium requirement for this scenario, determining the time window for introduction of uranium or thorium reprocessing and for better use of uranium than what is the case in the once through fuel cycle. The once through cycle would be in this scenario sustainable up to about year 2060 providing most of the expected but undiscovered conventional uranium resources were turned into identified categories. It may be concluded that, under discussed conditions uranium resources will be more than adequate to fuel foreseeable expansions of nuclear power. Measures to secure better utilization of the nuclear fuel are discussed.

nuclear fuel; Uranium; Thorium; nuclear power; breeder reactors

nije evidentirano