engleski

Econometric Models for Estimating Tourism Demand

Tourism is a major high-growth industry and a driver of economic development in Croatia. The importance tourism has for the future development of Croatia’ s economy and its successful integration into European and world tourism flows calls for a systematic and adequate mathematical and econometric analysis of Croatia’ s outbound and inbound tourism flows. The purpose of this paper is to present one of the many existing econometric models for estimating and forecasting tourism demand – the so-called TRIP model for estimating and forecasting tourism demand – and examine the advantages and difficulties of its application with special reference to the Italian experience. The paper also seeks to demonstrate the need for applying similar econometric models in estimating and forecasting tourism demand in Croatian. This paper can be seen as the authors’ endeavour to direct attention to the importance and necessity of carrying out systematic and in- depth analysis of Croatian tourism demand, as well as applying quantitative models to estimate and forecast its future trends. As proof of the hypothesis of the necessity of using econometric models to estimate and forecast trends in Croatian tourism demand, the authors have based this paper on the results achieved and insight gained by eminent foreign researchers and experts in this field. Hence, this paper may serve as a platform for further, deeper research in this area, and it can be considered an overview of the current situation of quantitative analysis applied to Croatian tourism demand. In addition to the Introduction and Conclusion, the paper comprises two sections. The first section looks at the TRIP model for estimating and forecasting tourism demand, and the advantages and difficulties of its application. The second section provides a brief review of the current situation in analysing tourism demand in Croatia.

tourism demand ; estimating and forecasting ; econometric models ; quantitative analysis ; the TRIP models ; Croatian tourism

nije evidentirano