engleski

Air pollution and the aggravation of the symptoms of COPD in children

Studies conducted in Zagreb reported a short-term relation between air pollutant concentrations and emergency hospital visits due to the aggraviation of symptoms of the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Air pollution in Zagreb is generally below the limit, and usually within the values recommended by the World Health Organisation. Daily variations in the number of emergency room visits due to COPD were modeled in relation to daily variations in air pollution for the period 1995-1997. Generalized additive model for Poisson distribution was used, controlling for possible confounders, seasonallity, trend, and atoregressive patterns. The effect of NO2 was linear and significant with relative risk associated with a 50 ug/m3 increase in NO2 concentrations equal 1.297 (95% confidence limits 1.026-1.639). The effect of SO2 was also linear, but not statistically significant, and that of black smoke was significantly nonlinear and of an intriguing U shape. The COPD emergency visits increased when black smoke concentrations decreased below 36 ug/m3 (the 75th percentole) and increased above 48 ug/m3 (the 90th percentile). This finding is attributed to possible confounding of ozone.

GAM; Poisson regression; spline smoothing; NO2; SO2; black smoke; COPD

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