Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization (CROSBI ID 147970)
Prilog u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Rios-Morales, Ruth ; Gamberger, Dragan ; Šmuc, Tomislav ; Azuaje, Francisco
engleski
Innovative methods in assessing political risk for business internationalization
Political risk assessment, together with portfolio analysis, has become an important part of international business investment decision making. In this paper, by using different knowledge discovery techniques, we attempt to assess the relevance and actionability of ‘ good governance’ indicators in political risk assessment. For that purpose, we have integrated good governance indicators data with political instability classification from the Political Instability Task Force (PITF) research. From this study, two models that capture the intuitive reasoning of investors have been developed. The usefulness of the models has been evaluated by comparison with factual investment data. Our findings suggest thatquantitative indicators of good governancemay provide the basis for accurate and meaningful models for the assessment and prediction of political risk.
Political instability ; Investment risk ; Data mining ; Statistical analysis ; Good governance ; Machine learning
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Podaci o izdanju
23
2009.
144-156
objavljeno
0275-5319
1878-3384
10.1016/j.ribaf.2008.03.011
Povezanost rada
Računarstvo, Ekonomija