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Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime


Rixen, M; Carta, A; Grandi V.; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P.; Book, J.; Martin, P.J.; Preller, R; Oddo, P; Pinardi, N; Guarnieri, A. et al.
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime // Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts / Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava (ur.).
Zagreb: Andrija Mohorovičić Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, 2008. str. 51-51 (predavanje, nije recenziran, sažetak, znanstveni)


Naslov
Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time (DART) : multi-model superensembles prediction in a coastal ocean regime

Autori
Rixen, M ; Carta, A ; Grandi V. ; Gualdesi L., Ranelli, P. ; Book, J. ; Martin, P.J. ; Preller, R ; Oddo, P ; Pinardi, N ; Guarnieri, A. ; Chiggiato, J. ; Carniel, S. ; Russo, Aleksandar ; Orlić, Mirko ; Tudor, Martina ; Vandenbulcke, L. ; Lenartz, F. ; DART consortium

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology : Book of abstracts / Orlić, Mirko ; Pasarić, MIroslava - Zagreb : Andrija Mohorovičić Geophysical Institute, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb, 2008, 51-51

ISBN
978-953-6076-18-5

Skup
Workshop Recent Advances in Adriatic Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

Mjesto i datum
Dubrovnik, Hrvatska, 05-07.11.2008

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Nije recenziran

Ključne riječi
Adriatic; super-ensembles; models; prediction

Sažetak
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aimed at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data at appropriate spatio-temporal resolution and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state-of-the-art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR (a trawl-resistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time) data and a series of eight operational models ran during the DART (Dynamics of the Adriatic in Real-Time) experiment in a coastal area. Kalman filter and particle filter SE-based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased temperature prediction skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non-Gaussian error statistics and reduces the forecast uncertainty by a further 30%.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Geologija



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekt / tema
004-1193086-3036 - Oluje i prirodne katastrofe u Hrvatskoj (Branka Ivančan-Picek, )
119-1193086-3085 - Utjecaj atmosfere i topografske varijabilnosti na procese u moru (Mirko Orlić, )

Ustanove
Državni hidrometeorološki zavod,
Prirodoslovno-matematički fakultet, Zagreb