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Transportation Cost Assessment by Means of a Monte Carlo Simulation in a Transshipment Model


Dukić, Gordana; Dukić, Darko; Alerić, Ivana
Transportation Cost Assessment by Means of a Monte Carlo Simulation in a Transshipment Model // Book of Abstracts / Jolić, Natalija (ur.).
Zagreb: University of Zagreb - Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, 2007. str. 47-48 (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, sažetak, znanstveni)


Naslov
Transportation Cost Assessment by Means of a Monte Carlo Simulation in a Transshipment Model

Autori
Dukić, Gordana ; Dukić, Darko ; Alerić, Ivana

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Sažeci sa skupova, sažetak, znanstveni

Izvornik
Book of Abstracts / Jolić, Natalija - Zagreb : University of Zagreb - Faculty of Transport and Traffic Sciences, 2007, 47-48

ISBN
978-953-243-020-2

Skup
2nd International Conference on Ports and Waterways – POWA 2007 “ Inland Waterway Transport Interoperability within European Transport System”

Mjesto i datum
Vukovar, 05-06.10.2007.

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Transportation costs; stochastic transshipment model; Monte Carlo simulation; quantitative methods; confidence interval; computer analysis

Sažetak
The task of transport management is to organize the transport of goods from a number of sources to a number of destinations with minimum total costs. The basic transportation model assumes direct transport of goods from a source to a destination with constant unit transportation costs. In practice, however, goods are frequently transported through several transient points where they need to be transshipped. In such circumstances transport planning and organization become increasingly complex. This is especially noticeable in water transport. Most of the issues are directly connected to port operations, as they are the transshipment hubs. Since transportation is under a number of influences, in today's turbulent operating conditions the assumption on fixed unit transportation costs cannot be taken as realistic. In order to improve decision making in the transportation domain, this paper will present a stochastic transshipment model in which cost estimate is based on Monte Carlo simulation. Simulated values of unit costs are used to devise an adequate linear programming model, the solving of which determines the values of total minimum transportation costs. After repeating the simulation for a sufficient number of times, the distribution of total minimum costs can be formed, which is the basis for the pertinent confidence interval estimation. It follows that the design, testing and application of the presented model requires a combination of quantitative optimization methods, simulation and elements of inferential statistics, all with the support of computer and adequate software.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija, Informacijske i komunikacijske znanosti



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