engleski

Testing for Granger Causality between Economic Sentiment Indicator and Gross Domestic Product for the Croatian Economy

Granger causality test is useful to determining whether one time series is useful in forecasting another. In this paper we examine wheter data from Business Tendency Surveys are useful for forecasting some selected referent macro economy variables in the short run. We compare the Economic Sentiment Indicator – ESI as a composite indicator for the whole Business survay with the GDP for Croatia. It is evident that the ESI in Croatia correctly predict changes in a national economy (expresed with GDP growht) two quarters in advanse.

Granger Causality; Augmented Dickey-Fuller test; ESI- Economic Sentiment Indicator; GDP -Gross Domestic Product

nije evidentirano