engleski

Future research as a basis for the proactive marketing : scenarios of the telecommunication industry

Due to the unexpected political and economic events in the near history, business people all over the world tend to think about the uncertain market conditions. Future research therefore became the widespread theme of the conversations between both academics and practitioners. Future research is the presumption for the proactive marketing. Its role is to enable information and facilitate dialogue on future buyers and customers, future opportunities and solutions. Interpretations of different past, present and future facts, which are at the disposal for marketing managers for their decision making processes, enable decisions that take advantage of the future possibilities. Therefore, future research should be comprehended as a research process, not a forecasting. As Jaworski Kohli, and Sahay stated, there are two approaches that define market orientation of an organization: market-driven organization, which is basically reactive strategy, because it is led by the preferences and behaviors of the participants in a certain market structure and driving markets orientation, which is proactive strategy, because of its influence on market structures and/or behavior of the market participants in a way that organization’s market position is well-built. Having in mind that market success is the result of the active role of an organization in creating market conditions and that market structures are dynamic, organizations should strive to create favorable market dynamics. In order to do that, present and future market dynamics should be explored. The method which enable organizations to explore the future is scenario planning. Scenario planning is simply described as creation of equally acceptable futures and planning in those conditions. In that way future alternatives can be accepted resulting in the organized perceptions of those alternatives. The scenario planning process encourages the participant to be creative, yet it is very structured. It starts with the (1) formulation of the issue related to the theme of the research. This issue can be either very wide or very specific. After the issue has been raised, it is necessary to (2) conduct the research. It is usually based on thinking about the social dynamics, economic and political issues and technological trends. In the next step the process suggests (3) defining the driving and counter forces, the macro- and micro-environmental forces which influence the stories, regardless of their desirable stream. Those forces are then (4) described in terms of their predictability and level of influence, and (5) defined as critical uncertainties. After that, (6) the logical stories (scenarios) are developed to the end state. For the purpose of the research, a scenario planning was conducted in an international telecommunication organization, during two workshops. Twenty participants were the think-tank for the process, ranging from different organization departments and hierarchical levels, providing the most fruitful discussion on the issues. Data collection included: plenary and small groups’ discussions, brainstorming, "exhibitions", analysis and documentation on the spot, check-ins and check-outs. Both workshops were documented and checked by participants. Data were analyzed in a qualitative way. Three scenarios of the telecommunication industry in the year 2015 were developed (Figure 2) The end states of each scenario were supported with time lines, in order to explain: (1) what crucial events brought those end states, (2) how did they happen, (3) who participated in them and who did not, (4) what are the issues that have been raised and how they were solved and (5) what it meant for their organization.

future research; proactive marketing; scenario planning process

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