Operational oceanography in the coastal region using multi-model super-ensembles (CROSBI ID 536310)
Prilog sa skupa u časopisu | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Rixen, M. ; Carta, A. ; Grandi, V. ; Gualdesi, L. ; Ranelli, P. ; Book, J. ; Martin, P. ; Preller, R. ; Oddo, P. ; Pinardi, N. ; Guarnieri, A ; Chiggiato, J. ; Carniel, S. ; Russo, Aleksandar ; Orlić, Mirko ; Tudor, Martina ; Vandenbulcke, L. ; Lenartz, F. ; DART consortium
engleski
Operational oceanography in the coastal region using multi-model super-ensembles
Multi-model Super-Ensembles (SE) aiming at combining optimally different models have been shown to improve significantly atmospheric weather predictions. In the coastal ocean, complex, yet poorly understood dynamics, the presence of small-scales processes, the lack of real-time data and limited reliability of operational models so far prevented the application of SE methods. Here, we report results from state - of - the - art super-ensemble techniques based on dynamic combinations of SEPTR [a trawlresistant bottom mounted platform transmitting in near real-time] data and a series of eight operational models ran during an experiment in a coastal area in the Adriatic Sea. Kalman filter and Particle filter based methods which allow for dynamic evolution of weights and associated uncertainty show increased skill (+10%) as compared to single models. The latter method copes with non Gaussian error statistics and reduces the uncertainty by a further 30%.
operational oceanography; coastal region
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Podaci o prilogu
2008.
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objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Geophysical research abstracts
1029-7006
Podaci o skupu
EGU General Assembly 2008
predavanje
13.04.2008-18.04.2008
Beč, Austrija