engleski

Geopolitical impact on petroleum industry and security of world oil and natural gas supply

Current oil and natural gas market relations imply the relative balance of supply and demand. Predictions of energy movements indicate the growth of future oil and gas demand which could lead to market instability and changes in terms of strengths due to current or moderate increase of supply. Therefore, the structure of worlds’ oil and gas market depends on increase of energy demand in interaction with economic development, but also on slowing of hydrocarbon reserves depletion as result of commercial discoveries outside the main production regions. Distribution of reserves, production, refining and consumption together with transportation routes points out an interaction of geopolitics and oil market whereat the basic market mechanisms of supply and demand does not give complete explanation of market occurrence, yet relations of market and geopolitics could be explained by connection of economic and strategic interests along with global events, particularly in oil regions. The fact that the oil reserves depletion has been accelerated emphasizes the importance of safe supply, especially of reserves with the longest lifetime. Meanwhile, the price of production has to be taken into account along with importance of oil and gas price formulation which can insure the influence on global economic policy. In this paper the analyses of events in main oil regions, which represent the effort to break down connections between oil market and geopolitics, characterized by the struggle for territory, new exploration areas and also transportation directions, will be made. Furthermore, the risks, originated from geopolitical influence on oil and gas market, will also be discussed.

geopolitics; petroleum industry; oil and natural gas market; petroleum supply and demand

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