engleski

The Model of Forecasting the North Adriatic Ports Traffic

For successful functioning of every traffic system, and thereby also port system, is coordination of supply and demand. Traffic supply is inflexible and its building up and developing involves sizable finances. Therefore, to be profitable, supply has to be planned in accordance with existing and expected demand in future. In the past scientific researches there has been quite a number of predictions of Northern Adriatic ports traffic done by domestic and foreign authors. The methods most used were linear trend and barometric method. But, looking these forecasts today, considerable variations from present traffic are noticeable. The main reasons for unrealistic forecasts were the breakup of the ex Yugoslavia, within borders of which were ports Rijeka and Koper, and taking rates of economic growth of the ex Yugoslavia as a base for forecasting. In the narrow gravitational area ports Trieste, Rijeka and Koper are competitors but all of these ports have the same gravitational areas, with some differences in serving market. Mutual cooperation of the Northern Adriatic ports is necessity thus they can together compete to Black-Sea and north-western European ports. For this reason these three ports are here taken as a whole. This paper aims at setting the model of forecasting the total traffic of the Northern Adriatic ports: Trieste, Koper and Rijeka. Subsequently, the portion in the forecasted traffic that is dropping off on every single port is determining.

the Northern Adriatic ports traffic; forecasting

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