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Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 303713

Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Disaggregated Analysis of Monthly Overnight Stays


Payne, James E.; Mervar, Andrea
Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Disaggregated Analysis of Monthly Overnight Stays // 7th International Conference Enterprise in Transition / Reić, Zllatan ; Fredotović, Maja (ur.).
Split: Faculty of Economics, University of Split, 2007. str. - (predavanje, međunarodna recenzija, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni)


Naslov
Forecasting Tourism Demand in Croatia: A Disaggregated Analysis of Monthly Overnight Stays

Autori
Payne, James E. ; Mervar, Andrea

Vrsta, podvrsta i kategorija rada
Radovi u zbornicima skupova, cjeloviti rad (in extenso), znanstveni

Izvornik
7th International Conference Enterprise in Transition / Reić, Zllatan ; Fredotović, Maja - Split : Faculty of Economics, University of Split, 2007

Skup
Enterprise in Transition

Mjesto i datum
Bol, Brač, Hrvatska, 24-26.05.2007

Vrsta sudjelovanja
Predavanje

Vrsta recenzije
Međunarodna recenzija

Ključne riječi
Tourism forecasting; ARIMA models; ARCH models; Croatia

Sažetak
The Croatian tourism industry has experienced a substantial rise over the recent years resulting in its continuously increasing significance for the overall economy. In light of that, this study estimates monthly time series intervention seasonal ARIMA models for the total number of tourist overnight stays as well for the overnight stays disaggregated into domestic and foreign components. The time series intervention seasonal ARIMA models include intervention variables for the 1995 military action by the Croatian authorities and the 1999 Kosovo crisis. Allowing for time-varying variance in the residuals of the intervention seasonal ARIMA models, in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts are generated for total, domestic, and foreign tourist overnight stays.

Izvorni jezik
Engleski

Znanstvena područja
Ekonomija



POVEZANOST RADA


Projekt / tema
002-0022469-2470 - Makroekonomska konvergencija Republike Hrvatske Europskoj uniji (Željko Lovrinčević, )

Ustanove
Ekonomski institut, Zagreb