Napredna pretraga

Pregled bibliografske jedinice broj: 301068

Modelling Inflation in Croatia

Vizek, Maruška; Broz, Tanja
Modelling Inflation in Croatia, 2007. (working paper).

Modelling Inflation in Croatia

Vizek, Maruška ; Broz, Tanja

Radni materijali EIZ-a (EIZ Working Papers) 0703

Vrsta, podvrsta
Ostale vrste radova, working paper


Ključne riječi
Inflation modelling; cointegration; general-to-specific; Croatia

The aim of this paper is to construct a quarterly inflation model for Croatia. In order to model inflation dynamics we use the general-to-specific approach. The advantage of this approach is its ability to deliver results based on underlying economic theories of inflation, which are also consistent with the properties of the data. A two step procedure is followed. In the first step, the long-run sectoral analysis of inflation sources is conducted, yielding long-run determinants of inflation (mark-up, excess money, nominal effective exchange rate and the output gap). In the second step, we estimate an equilibrium error correction model of inflation deploying, among other variables of interest, long-run solutions derived in the first step. The derived model of inflation suggests that mark-up and excess money relationships are very important for explaining the short-run behaviour of inflation, as well as the output gap and nominal effective exchange rate, import prices, interest rates and narrow money. Comparing the results of the model suggests that short-run inflation is more responsive to supply side and exchange rate changes than to monetary conditions.

Izvorni jezik

Znanstvena područja


Projekt / tema
002-0022469-2470 - Makroekonomska konvergencija Republike Hrvatske Europskoj uniji (Željko Lovrinčević, )

Ekonomski institut, Zagreb