engleski

Modeling Risks of Wind Power Projects

Croatia has the considerable potential for developing of wind energy projects. Preliminary research analyses declare profitable capacity of minimum 400 MW. Due to the accession process to the EU, Croatia has obligation to increase the share of renewable energy sources and the wind energy is the most promising for fulfilling this request. Project developers have installed meteorological masts at scores of potential windy locations, wind atlas of Croatia is under development by Energy Institute “ Hrvoje Pozar” and many of local communities in their land use plans foresee locations for the wind farms. Although the wind potential of the location and availability of grid connection are the most important for the success of the project there are number of conditions requested by the land use plans. Some important energy regulatory acts are still under construction, energy market is in its infancy, transmission and distribution network operators do not have experience in connecting renewable energy sources on network. Government still favorites some other industries in conflicting situations (i.e. construction of wind farms is inhibited on islands and coastline zone of 1000m at the Adriatic Sea due to the tourism facilities). This short list of possible causes for the project failure emphasizes the need for a tool that will help project developers in Croatia to estimate the risk level for the investment. The model for risk analysis is developed in order to identify and quantify risks that may affect investments in wind energy projects. Qualitative risk analysis consists of five risk categories: project, market, technological, political and administrative. Regarding the stages of project development risks are assigned to the development phase, construction phase, operational phase or de-commissioning phase. Quantitative risk analysis instead of traditional approach with static and onedimension scenarios (pessimistic scenario, a more likely scenario and an optimistic scenario) use probabilistic approach with Monte Carlo simulation. The model references EU experience in wind projects and EU energy market model. The financial measures for the project risk evaluation are used for the results interpretation: Return on Investment Period (ROIP), Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR). The model is verified on the real case study and the results are presented in the paper.

Risk analysis; wind energy projects; risk modeling; Monte Carlo simulation

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