engleski

Modelling cash flow in construction projects in countries in transition

The paper describes the modelling of cash flow in construction projects in countries in transition. Data of construction contribution in investment is shown, as well as GDP and total employed personnel in Croatian construction industry. Analysed are the most important changes which affect construction in a country in transition as well as those changes which affect the modelling of cash flow. In the central part of the paper, the effect of risk and time slacks on the ability to form theoretical curves of cost flows is analysed. Results of research related to the effect of risk on time and cost, performed on 100 randomly chosen construction projects, are presented. The main sources of risk are described. The analysis of the effect of risk is performed with the aid of interpolation of various curves for costs between planned and actually recorded cost curves on the observed projects. Testing for each individually obtained curve for costs is performed through the bestfit approach with 18 theoretical functions. Ranking is performed according to the Chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. The analysis shows that the effect of risk increases the interval of possible shapes of the cost curves and the various possible forms of best approximation. The testing of the effects of reserves for completion also indicates various possible deviations from "a single curve". From that then, this paper proposes the creation of a value interval instead of a single theoretical curve. In order to ensure a practical value of results, proposed are criteria by which projects can be grouped. The concluding part of the paper discusses possible application of modelling of cash flow in connection with possible directions of development in a particular country in transition. For example in Croatia the emphasis is oriented on tourism, which like most human activities affects the natural resources which acted like a base for its development. From this then, the paper discusses the need for the development of a model of sustainable development, which includes a balance between commercial success of a project and environmental protection. In the calculation of cash flow it is necessary to include costs of protection of natural resources, but according to a model which protects and unites the interests of investors, government and institutions of environmental protection.

Key words: cash flow; country in transition; construction projects; risk; development

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