engleski

Probability Classes and Geological Events in Geological Probability Calculation

This paper considers the basic principles of geological probability calculation for hydrocarbon reservoir. Presented methodology is applied for evaluation of potential hydrocarbon discovery in Croatian part of Pannonian Basin. Applied deterministic approach included five geological categories (traps, reservoirs, source rocks, migration and hydrocarbon preservation), estimating geological events that could describe geological settings of petroleum systems. Significant reduction of probability classes make possible easily check different plays or prospects that could be estimated. Applied probability classes included five numerical and textual values as follows: 1.00 for proven, 0.75 for highly reliable, 0.50 for fairly reliable, 0.25 for unreliable and 0.05 for impossible prediction or missing geological event. Calculation procedure is made in the form of freeware computer program. Such transparent methodology can easily be applied in almost any part of Pannonian Basin System.

geological probability; categories; events; probability classes; Pannonian Basin

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