engleski

The Analysis of Seasonal Variations in Vital Statistics in Croatia: Two Different Approaches

We have analyzed the following vital statistics in Croatia: live births, deaths, marriages and divorces. Seasonal and other variations were extracted from monthly time series. We have also made forecasts for the nearest future. It would be interested because Croatian population has been decreasing for several years and also number of marriages has dramatically fallen, due to various reasons. Two different methods for seasonal adjustment were employed: X-12-ARIMA which is empirically based (“ ad hoc method” ) and TRAMO/SEATS which is model based method. We investigated the results and statistical diagnostics related to both methods.

Seasonal Variations; Mortality; Live births; Marriages; Forecasting

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