engleski

Impact of climate change on Dinaric silver fir-beech forests

Majority of virgin forests in Croatia can be found in silver fir – beech forests (Omphalodo-Fagetum) that are also habitats for three large carnivores (bear, wolf and lynx) that is rarity in the Europe. All this indicates great importance these forests have in preserving biodiversity. As these forests are vegetation climax under present climate conditions they represent a good model for evaluation of climate changes impact on terrestrial ecosystems and their biodiversity. Using IPCC-SRESA1 climate scenario, and WWF estimations of changes in summer and winter precipitation, we have analysed alterations in spatial distribution of Omphalodo-Fagetum sub-associations and several vascular plant species whose recent distribution was well explained with used climatic parameters. Three scenarios were calculated, two for years 2050 and one for year 2080. Sub-association asaretosum has constant tendency of increasing its proportion, while homogynetosum and aceretosum has shown constant decrease in their proportions. Remaining three sub-associations has shown various directions of changes in the dependence of used scenarios. Simple model (vertical shift based on temperature increase) has shown 15% areal reduction of Omphalodo-Fagetum forest in year 2050 and 42% in year 2080. Among modelled species, one directional changes was observed only for Asarum europaeum which increased its distribution, while remaining species (i.e. Acer obtusatum, Daphne laureola and Prenanthes purpurea) had various shift in its distributions depending upon used climate change scenarios. We can conclude that predicted climate change will have significant impact on these forests but for more accurate estimations use of spatially precise, local climate change scenarios are needed.

predictive models; IPCC-SRESA1 climate scenarios; Omphalodo-Fagetum

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