engleski

Pollution Episodes Prediction Based on Stability Partameters in the Rijeka Area

The numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN was used to provide stability parameters on the complex orography of the Rijeka area, the most developed industrial part of the Croatian coast. These parameters are stability and mixing height (MH), which are input data in the Gaussian dispersion model used for pollutant concentrations calculations. A pollution episode occurred in Rijeka on 3 February 2002 when the concentration of SO2 increased approximately by 300% reaching a measured average daily concentration of 225.5 µ g m-3. This high daily concentration continued during the next two days and on 4 February 2002 a warning was sent out to the public not to expose outdoors due to health risk. The refinery and other industrial sources of SO2 clamed that they did not increase emissions in this period and city traffic was also of usual intensity. Therefore, these higher concentrations are likely consequence of specific meteorological conditions and it is shown that episodes can be predicted with NWP model ALADIN. Also, the model unreliability in surface temperature prediction relates to days with fog or mizzle and there is also an indication of night-time surface temperature underestimation.

numerical weather prediction model; stability parameters; pollution episode

nije evidentirano