engleski

CN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION FOR THE ADRIA REGION AND ITS SURROUNDINGS

An overview of the application of the intermediate-term middle-range earthquake prediction algorithm CN for the analysis of seismicity in the Adria region and surrounding countries, namely Italy and Croatia, is provided. A regionalization, strictly based on the seismotectonic zoning, is proposed for the application of CN algorithm to the foreland areas along the Adriatic sea as well. The regionalization currently used for the routine monitoring of earthquakes occurrence in the Italian territory, which is composed by three regions located along the north-western boundaries of the Adria plate, has been dened strictly following the seismotectonic zoning and taking into account the main geodynamic features of the area. Specically, the borders of each region have been traced including only adjacent zones with similar seismogenic behaviour and the transitional zones connected to them, compatibly with the cinematic model. Based on the successful results obtained so far (including the real-time prediction test for earthquakes with magnitude larger than 5.4 in the monitored territory), a region suitable for CN application to the Adriatic sea is dened, following the same rules controlling the denition of the three regions in the Italian territory. The new area, the Adria region, is composed by the foreland areas extending from the Adriatic Sea to Southern Sicily, trough the Ionian Sea. A number of stability tests, taking into account dierent congurations of the area of investigation and dierent choices of the free parameters of the algorithm, are satisfactorily performed. The obtained results seem to support the hypothesis, that precursors can be found inside seismogenically homogeneous areas associated to a dominating geodynamic process. Hence the seismotectonic model may represent an useful guide in the selection of the fault systems involved in the preparation of strong earthquakes.

seismicity; Adria; CN algorithm

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