engleski

The Investment Risk in the Mineral and Energetics Sources

Managerial decisions are brought today in conditions of certainty, risk and uncertainty. Certainty refers to the situation in which there is only one possible outcome of some decision and in which this outcome is precisely known. Risk refers to the situation in which a decision has more than one possible outcome and the probability of each specific outcome is known or can be estimated. Risk demands that decision-maker is acquainted with all possible outcomes of decision, but also the probability of each possible outcome of that decision. Commonly, greater number of possible outcomes means greater risk of decision or activity. The maximum level of risk is uncertainty where the result of brought decision is uncertain or even unknown. Analysis of managerial decision that involves risk uses the concept such as strategy, state of nature and payoff matrix. A strategy refers to one of several alternative courses of action that a decision-maker can take to achieve a goal. A state of nature refers to conditions in the future that will have a significant effect on the degree of success or failure of any strategy, but over which the decision-maker has little or no control. For example, the design of surface mineral operations must balance mine planing with the principles of sustainable development of mineral sources, including the protection, environmental mitigation, restoration and ultimate post mining land use. Sustainable development focuses on social, economic and environmental issues. In meny cases, it is the public opinion that plays an overriding role in the final success of a project. In this paper, a risk of investment is analyzed upon the example of the low temperature geothermal sources exploitation of the geothermal potential in Croatia. A few of them have been exploited, although the percentage of utilization of their available power is still very small. This risk in the low temperature geothermal sources can be very high, depending mostly upon their natural conditions, oil price level on the world market, economic development and ecological integrity.

investment risk; energetics

nije evidentirano