engleski

Evaluation of Investments in New Power Generation Using Dynamic and Stochastic Analyses

The paper describes the application of a stochastic method for comparing economic parameters of future electrical power generating systems including conventional and nuclear power plants. The input data for calculation are cost elements defined in the frame of certain limits of expected occurrence with a probability distribution within the limits. The method is applied to establish competitive specific investment costs of future power plants. The main competitors for unlimited electricity production in next few decades are fossil power plants (coal and gas) and nuclear power plants. This paper summarizes the methodology and present selected results of the probabilistic analysis of the performance and costs and compare the nuclear power plant, coal and gas fired power plants. Performed analysis shows that future competitive nuclear power plant investment costs (period 2010-2030) are not considerably different from the investment costs achieved for present generation of nuclear power plants.

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