engleski

The Estimation of Prewar GDP in Croatia: Methodology, New Results and Cross-country Comparison

During 19th and 20th century Croatia has been part of five countries. Accordingly, statistical data on economic growth is fragmented and difficult to compile. During period of 1870-1913 statistical data on economic output is scarce. The approximations are based on cross-country calibrations of various variables which correlate with growth rates in the countries with abundant statistical data. In the period between two world wars, macroeconomic analysis was rather underdeveloped. The available statistical data is approximation of national income – sum of wages, rents and interest rates - which was compiled for the purpose of taxing. After WWII up until transition, official unit of measurement of economic output in Croatia was social product which accounted for material production only. For the period 1960-1990 approximation of the GDP in 1985 international dollars is available for the former Yugoslavia and for the period of 1994-2000 GDP in 1996 international dollars is available for Croatia. The first goal of this paper is approximation of GDP for the entire period of 1870-2000. As we go backward in time, the quality of available data deteriorates. In this paper, the continuous nature of the deterioration is ignored and simplified by treating the deterioration as occurring at discrete point in time, called the "borderline" year. Before the borderline year some crucial data are missing but are available after the borderline year. Any method of estimating or "backcasting" aggregate economic activity before the borderline year must infer the level of output in sector lacking data. Two borderline years are taken, 1990 as a start of transition, and 1952 as a first year with homogenous statistical data. Before the borderline year GDP is estimated by calibration of growth rates of existing units of measurement of economic output in various periods and growth rates of sectors with available statistical data. The second goal of this paper is cross-country comparison of GDP per capita in Croatia and USA throughout the period of 1870-2000. Purpose of cross-country comparison is analysis of periods in which Croatia has experienced real convergence and identification of economical environment in which convergence has happened.

prewar GDP; Croatia; cross-country comparison

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