engleski

Extreme wind speed in Croatia

The Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and its application to the statistical analysis of extreme wind speeds are discussed. Its main advantage is that it makes use of all relevant data on the high wind gusts produced by storms of interest, not just the annual maximum. Peak-over-threshold maximum, extracted fro sample data series to rpoduce a series of extreme values above a chosen threshold, have been used with the GPD. The choice of threshold is set to be appropriate for the climatology of site and is set on 99th percentile of all available data. Since the extremes must be independent, we have used 48 hours as a minimum separationn time. The results of mentined extreme wind speed calculation in Croatia as a base for revision of the Croatian standards on wind loads upon structures are presented. The reference i.e. extreme wind speed, at 10 m height, in a flat open terrain, with 50 years mean return periodare given for 28 meteorological stations for the period 1997-2002. Obtained reference wind speeds indicate that we can expect reference wind speed not greater than 20 m/s in continental part of Croatia. Situation is more complex for the coastal area and islands. The greatest part of that region is covered with referent wind speeds up to 25 m/s. The greatest values could be expected buring the Bora wind (strong, turbulent wind that blow along the Adriatic coast). Channeling effects of local orography strengthens the wind and cause reference speeds ar some locations greater than 35-40 m/s.

extreme wind; General Pareto Distribution

nije evidentirano