engleski

Fitting of extreme wave probability distribution function using genetic algorithm

Two major statistical issues can be distinguished in the procedure of wave extreme prediction. The first issue is that predicted extreme values must be based on data collected in relatively short time. The second issue is extrapolation of the observed data into its extreme region, typically lying well beyond from even the most extreme available observation. The process of extrapolation plays a fundamental role in this area of analysis and therefore it is essential to fit empirically a convenient probability distribution that describes the available data as closely as possible. Optimization of extreme values probability distribution parameters by genetic algorithm is applied to improve the methodology of extreme sea state prediction. Illustrative applications of the method are given for a North Atlantic sea environment. The results are presented as crest height maximum values occurring with a given probability or in a design storm that has a specified return period.

extreme sea state; probability density function; genetic algorithm

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