An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia (CROSBI ID 494798)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Mihaljević, Maja
engleski
An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia
To learn more about the determinants of tourism demand in Croatia an econometric approach is used i.e. Ordinary Least Squares method is adopted. The dependent variable is the quarterly figures on tourist arrivals to Croatia from nine tourist-generating countries in the period from fourth quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 1999. Independent variables, as suggested by the research in this area, are the price of tourism in the destination country (Croatia), the level of income in the origin country, expectations and habit persistence, and several dummy variables. If the price of tourism is held constant, the hypothesis that is being tested is whether an increase in the income of the origin country would result in an increase of tourism demand in Croatia, testing that tourism is a normal good. Two models were specified and estimated for each country separately allowing the examination of several important elements - mostly the influence of prices and habits on the number of arrivals. The key research result is that the normal good hypothesis does not hold for German and Austrian tourists. Habits, captured by a one-year-lagged dependent variable, were positive and statistically significant for Slovenia. Although these research results seem to be consistent with the characteristics of tourism demand in Croatia across the last decade and a half, they need to be interpreted with caution.
tourism demand modelling; tourist generating countries; demand elasticity
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Podaci o prilogu
2003.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Enterprise in transition : proceedings
Reić, Zlatan
Split: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu
953-6024-49-7
Podaci o skupu
International Conference on Enterprise in Transition (5 ; 2003)
predavanje
22.05.2003-24.05.2003
Tučepi, Hrvatska; Split, Hrvatska