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An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia (CROSBI ID 494798)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija

Mihaljević, Maja An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia // Enterprise in transition : proceedings / Reić, Zlatan (ur.). Split: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, 2003

Podaci o odgovornosti

Mihaljević, Maja

engleski

An Econometric Approach to Modelling Tourist Arrivals in Croatia

To learn more about the determinants of tourism demand in Croatia an econometric approach is used i.e. Ordinary Least Squares method is adopted. The dependent variable is the quarterly figures on tourist arrivals to Croatia from nine tourist-generating countries in the period from fourth quarter of 1993 to the second quarter of 1999. Independent variables, as suggested by the research in this area, are the price of tourism in the destination country (Croatia), the level of income in the origin country, expectations and habit persistence, and several dummy variables. If the price of tourism is held constant, the hypothesis that is being tested is whether an increase in the income of the origin country would result in an increase of tourism demand in Croatia, testing that tourism is a normal good. Two models were specified and estimated for each country separately allowing the examination of several important elements - mostly the influence of prices and habits on the number of arrivals. The key research result is that the normal good hypothesis does not hold for German and Austrian tourists. Habits, captured by a one-year-lagged dependent variable, were positive and statistically significant for Slovenia. Although these research results seem to be consistent with the characteristics of tourism demand in Croatia across the last decade and a half, they need to be interpreted with caution.

tourism demand modelling; tourist generating countries; demand elasticity

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Podaci o prilogu

2003.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

Enterprise in transition : proceedings

Reić, Zlatan

Split: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta u Zagrebu

953-6024-49-7

Podaci o skupu

International Conference on Enterprise in Transition (5 ; 2003)

predavanje

22.05.2003-24.05.2003

Tučepi, Hrvatska; Split, Hrvatska

Povezanost rada

Ekonomija