engleski

Impact of land use/land cover changes on the urban heat load - a case study for the City of Dubrovnik

In this study, land use/land cover changes were examined to investigate their impact on the urban heat load of the City of Dubrovnik in the present and future climate. Dubrovnik is situated in the Mediterranean which has been referenced as one of the most responsive regions to climate change. Firstly, urban heat load, in the current morphology of the city, is investigated in the present and future climate conditions by using data observed at the local meteorological station and data obtained from regional climate models of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. Also, the urban climate model MUKLIMO_3 is utilized to obtain the spatial distribution of the heat load. The spatial distribution of the heat load in the City of Dubrovnik in the present climate indicates that the highest heat load is in the public and residential parts of the city. In this study results of the heat load of the Lapad peninsula as it would have been if it had remained green are presented. Climate indices obtained by simulations of the model MUKLIMO_3 for future climate scenarios (rcp4.5) show that the heat load will increase in the entire city domain, with the strongest increase in its urbanized parts. This study examines the impact of modifications in land use/land cover (like changes in the fraction of buildings, impervious surfaces, vegetation and albedo of the roofs) on the heat load. It is demonstrated that these changes will decrease the heat load to some extent. However, the impact is locally limited and significantly smaller than the contribution of global warming.

urban heat load ; future climate conditions ; model MUKLIMO_3 ; scenario rcp4.5 ; climate indices ; LULC modifications ; impact of greening

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