engleski

UTCI forecast in Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service

With an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events due to global warming, the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service (DHMZ) is always looking to improve its algorithms and warning system for such events. Part of the current biometeorological forecast and the Meteoalarm warning system are forecasts of heat waves and cold spells. In an attempt to improve these forecasts, DHMZ analyzed several thermal indices and implemented them operationally in test mode. Although there is no agreement on single comfort or physiological strain index to be used, Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are well accepted worldwide. For example, the UTCI has been used in many countries for over 10 years. It integrates contemporary science to simulate the human response (physiological stress) to meteorological conditions by a sophisticated model. The meteorological data used for the calculation of UTCI are hourly NWP model values of air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean radiant temperature. These predictions are calculated using NWP model ALADIN‟s export cycle 43, which is currently being tested at DHMZ. The UTCI is calculated for 30 locations in Croatia. The cases include heat waves and normal weather conditions. Strong wind episodes, such as local bora and jugo wind in coastal regions both in cold and warm seasons are also included, as well as moderate/strong wind in continental regions. Results for the cases of strong wind, especially in the cold season, show UTCI sensitivity to the wind. Finally, the UTCI values are compared with other biometeorological indices which are operational in DHMZ (e.g., Thermal comfort index and Physiological equivalent temperature) and simpler biometeorological indices (e.g., Heat Index in the warm season and Wind Chill index in the cold season).

DHMZ ; UTCI ; ALADIN ; PET ; biometeorological index ; thermal comfort

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