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Influence of LNG Supply on Gas Market Flexibility – based on Case Study of Croatia

The analysis of natural gas consumption trends shows that natural gas consumption in the Republic of Croatia is extremely seasonal, with high fluctuations during peak consumption. To cope with this seasonally unbalanced consumption profile, the gas network must have considerable technical flexibility with stable and balanced profiles of natural gas production and supply at the interconnection points (imports), but also deliveries from the LNG terminal. The objective of the research was to show the importance of each part of the natural gas system in providing flexibility. By analyzing the movement of natural gas flow through the individual parts of the natural gas system, data was obtained on the shares of the individual sources of flexibility in the Croatian gas system and the contribution of each to the realization of the overall flexibility of the gas system. The flexibility of the Croatian gas system in 2020 was satisfactory, as the system was undoubtedly functioning, with the largest contribution to flexibility coming from underground gas storage. The flexibility factor of natural gas imports at interconnection points, based on flexible supply contracts, was negative due to higher imports in the summer months. In addition, production has been steadily declining, so this source of flexibility has less and less opportunity to provide a significant amount of flexibility. On the other hand, the LNG terminal on Krk, which started operating at the beginning of 2021 as a new gas import point into the system, has not yet been considered a possible source of flexibility. The LNG volumes from the new LNG terminal were analyzed using an analogous methodology. The results of the research showed the analysis of the flexibility of each segment of the gas system and the movement of flexibility before and after the introduction of LNG into the market.

gas market flexibility ; security of supply ; gas supply ; gas demand ; natural gas sector

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