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Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps (CROSBI ID 728097)

Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | domaća recenzija

Ivušić, Sarah ; Güttler, Ivan ; Horvath, Kristian Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps // 6th Faculty of Science PhD Student Symposium: book of abstracts. 2022. str. 244-245

Podaci o odgovornosti

Ivušić, Sarah ; Güttler, Ivan ; Horvath, Kristian

engleski

Future precipitation changes over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps

Regional climate models (RCMs) are a tool for comprehensive climate analysis at regional scales aiming to represent regional processes and forcings (complex topography, land cover, rivers, coastal areas, etc.) at a fine scale. RCMs are extensively used for research purposes, especially for investigations of future climate changes. The study aims to estimate the future climate change of precipitation over the topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps, which is particularly vulnerable to climate change. We use an unprecedented ensemble of ~140 RCM simulations of future climate from the EURO-CORDEX initiative to cover all sources of uncertainty and as many possible future conditions. The ensemble includes simulations at a spatial resolution of ~12.5 km for three greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which assume different concentration pathways by the end of the century. We examine the climate change signal for several future thirty- year periods compared to the historical period. The results show changes in total precipitation, with a considerable reduction in summer and a south-north gradient in winter (an increase in northern parts of the region and a reduction in southern parts). By the end of the century, the number of rainy days will significantly decrease, however, the projections show a precipitation intensity increase. The latter will lead to an intensification in extreme precipitation events in all seasons, which pose a risk of severe flash floods, landslides, traffic interruptions, water and electricity supply problems and even human casualties.

climate change ; regional climate model ; precipitation ; Dinaric Alps

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Podaci o prilogu

244-245.

2022.

objavljeno

Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji

6th Faculty of Science PhD Student Symposium: book of abstracts

Podaci o skupu

6th Faculty of Science PhD Student Symposium

poster

01.01.2022-01.01.2022

Zagreb, Hrvatska

Povezanost rada

Geofizika