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Projected changes in precipitation in the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble under RCP4.5 scenario over the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps

The topographically complex coastal-mountainous region of the eastern Adriatic and Dinaric Alps is one of the rainiest areas in the Mediterranean and particularly vulnerable to climate change. Although there are studies that classify this region as the area with a "zero-change" line between the wetter north and drier south, which shifts northward towards the end of the century, the research of future precipitation changes over this region is still limited. We use the climate projections for the RCP4.5 scenario from the latest EURO-CORDEX ensemble of 11 regional climate models (RCMs) driven by six CMIP5 global climate models (GCMs), a total of 25 members at 0.11° resolution. We focus on the climate change signal for the far future period (2071-2100) compared to the historical period (1971-2000). The results show a reduction of total precipitation amount in the summer over the southern areas with no signal change over the northern parts of the region. In the winter, an increase in total precipitation amount is shown for the whole domain, highest over the northern parts. The projections show a decrease in the number of rainy days for all seasons over the southern parts of the region and with the highest agreement in the sign of the change in summer. However, an increase in precipitation intensity can be expected by the end of the century, especially during the autumn and winter months. Furthermore, the 99th percentile of precipitation amount, along with one and five-day maximum precipitation amount, are projected to increase in all seasons over northern areas, especially in winter and autumn. The projections do not show a clear signal over the southern parts in summer. We plan a more detailed analysis for multiple future periods and greenhouse gas concentration scenarios.

climate change ; regional climate models ; precipitation ; Dinaric Alps

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