engleski

“Preventing pollution of Adriatic Sea: Oil spill trajectory model using Pisces II scenarios and effects of incident on marine environment using multiple regression”

Oil spill is the release of a liquid petroleum hydrocarbon such as crude oil, refined petroleum such as gasoline or diesel fuel into the environment due to human activity, which can cause devastating impact to marine ecosystem. According to International Maritime Organization (IMO), oil tankers transport approximately 2900 million tons of crude oil and oil products per year. The quantity of oil spilled annually into oceans exceeds one million metric tons and oil spills have large impact on wildlife and economy as well. This paper presents the simulation of oil spill trajectory on water surface in the Kaštela Bay (in the Adriatic Sea) created by PISCES II simulator. The Kaštela Bay is semi-enclosed basin with cargo port and terminal for petroleum products distribution. The scenarios determinate processes with oil spill in marine environment: the trajectory of oil spill, chemical changes of oil and persistence of oils in the air, water column and sediment. The result of two different scenarios are shown in order to give an insight into potential oil spills impact on marine environment in this sensitive location. Furthermore, observing through whole linear multiple regression model (F=2.734 ; R=0.517 ; p=0.097) variable height of wave was identified as significant predictor of speed at which oils spread in (b=1.965 ; p=0.047). The paper presents different scenarios of oil spill from ships incident scenarios in particular sensitive area and gives the as well as correlation between relevant predictors and speed at which oil spreads. It can also serve as starting point for risk assessment analyses of the incidents in order to minimize the negative impact of oil spills on marine environment.

oil spill ; marine environment ; scenario ; PISCES II ; Kaštela Bay

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