engleski

Mechanistic modelling to support informed management – a study case of critically endangered Pinna nobilis

Despite being protected in Croatia since 1977, and Europe-wide since 1992, Mediterranean endemic bivalve Noble pen shell, Pinna nobilis L., has been experiencing an accelerated decline, culminating with still ongoing mass mortality events (MME) that started in 2016. Shortly after the initial MMEs, IUCN provided recommendations for conservation action plans, and multiple research teams assembled to provide science-based support, focusing on captive breeding, reintroduction, and preservation of still intact populations. The simultaneous degradation of the species’ conservation status to critically endangered, however, imposed many restrictions for experimentation, limiting the research. In-silico methods provide non-invasive yet efficient way to conduct research and obtain information that can inform decision-making for concrete action plans. Models can aggregate existing data and can simulate a range of possible scenarios, providing a much wider array of results than experiments. Mechanistic bioenergetic models, in particular, provide an insight into the physiology of an organism, and help understand – and predict – its response to different environmental conditions, including anthropogenic pressures and impacts of climate change. Concordant with the requirements for successful conservation strategies, we parameterized a mechanistic model of P. nobilis set within the Dynamic Energy Budget (DEB) framework, using available literature data. We then used the model to simulate and quantify growth, maturation and reproduction of the bivalve under various environmental scenarios. Alongside the results we obtained for P. nobilis, and their significance for related conservation efforts, we also present the general DEB modelling approach, and discuss its potential in building attractive tools that can help inform management practices of any species of interest.

dynamic energy budget ; model parameterization ; environmental factors ; noble pen shell ; conservation

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