engleski

Evolutionary dynamics of the hepatitis C virus subtype 1a in Croatia

Majority of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infections in Europe are caused by HCV genotype 1 which has disseminated globally during the 20th century. High prevalence of subtype 1a is observed in Croatian patients, especially among intravenous drug users (IDU). The aim of this study was to investigate epidemic history of the HCV subtype 1a in Croatian population. The study included 109 patients at the University Hospital for Infectious Diseases Zagreb infected with HCV subtype 1a from 2016 to 2019. Time-stamped NS3, NS5A and NS5B sequences of each patient were concatenated and phylodynamic analysis was performed using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach implemented in BEAST v.2.6. Models of population growth and molecular clock were selected based on Bayes factor analysis. Bayes factor analysis favored the relaxed lognormal molecular clock and the Bayesian skyline demographic model. The mean estimated substitution rate of the subtype 1a was 1, 48 × 10- 3 (HPD95%, 0, 52 – 2, 40 × 10-3), while the mean estimate for the time to most recent common ancestor was 59 years (HPD95%, 25 – 108) (Table 1). The Bayesian skyline analysis revealed an exponential increase in HCV subtype 1a infections from 1990s onwards (Figure 1). The increase of HCV subtype 1a in the 1990s and its continued growth throughout the first decade of the 2000s is in accordance with a huge increase in the number of IDU registered in this period in Croatia. Establishment of harm reduction programs could have contributed to stabilization of HCV subtype 1a incidence in the last decade.

Hepatitis C virus ; Phylodynamics ; Subtype 1a ; BEAST ; Intravenous Drug Users

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