engleski

Typological approach in scenario study: Spatial impacts of alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030

Aims: In recent decades, the scenario method has often been used to explore the possible future of the increasingly complex and diversified European countryside. The Croatian countryside is also very heterogeneous, but with predominantly negative demographic and socio-economic development. Although the scenario method brings useful new perspectives for participatory and strategic planning, policy and decision making, we argue that the fuller potential of future studies lies in their territorialisation, for example by using a typological approach. In this respect, many scenario exercises already consider ex-post the spatial implications of the scenarios developed, but without linking them directly to the present- day typology of rural areas. Therefore, the aim of this research is to construct alternative scenarios for rural Croatia in 2030, using the different types of rural areas as a starting point, and considering it simultaneously with the development of scenario narratives in an attempt to address the identified challenges. Methods: The main methods used were: Factor and cluster analysis (for the development of an initial typology of rural areas) ; Monte Carlo simulation ; and Delphi method, which involved 37 rural experts in two rounds of written questionnaires. Results: Four scenarios were developed: Rural Renaissance, Shift, Road to Nowhere and Growth without Development. The spatial impacts of explorative scenarios were visualized through four scenario-specific typologies. Numerical simulations have shown that the alternative scenarios imply a change in the spatial distribution and size of the territory, as well as in the number of inhabitants in a given rural area type compared to the current typology. The Road to Nowhere scenario entails the most visible spatial changes in the distribution of rural area types. Conclusion: The research findings suggest that the use of a typological approach to scenario development could support the development of more concrete and sensitive place-based policy recommendations for rural development.

rural areas ; scenario ; spatial typology ; Croatia

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