engleski

Population dynamics versus natural settings – a complex analysis of the area in and around Krka National Park (Šibenik-Knin County, Croatia)

Aims: According to geographic possibilism, the environment does not determine socio-economic development, however natural settings set certain constraints and limitations. Our main study question is how do natural settings influence population dynamics? In this study, we examine this question using the example of ŠibenikKnin County, which includes the area of Krka National Park. Methods: We used a GIS-based statistical approach for this study. The following parameters represent the natural factors: elevation ; slope ; distance from the sea ; proportion of karst areas. In addition, the distance from the national park was also added as an independent semi-natural factor (though it is a social construction). The dependent social parameters are population densities for selected historical dates, population change, the year of maximum population, natural increase, migration, and age index. The analysis units are the settlements (199 of them are found in the County) and local government units (there are 20). Results: The study period can be divided into 4 basic phases: from the first census in 1857 to 1921, there was a slow increase in most settlements ; then a relatively constant phase up to 1961 (some settlements already started to decrease in that period) ; a slow decrease until 1991 ; and a quick decrease with some stabilization thereafter. These processes were also accompanied by significant inner and outer migrations. As for the relationships, we found that elevation has the highest correlations with most population parameters, but distance from sea was also significantly correlated with population change and migration in certain periods. On the other hand, the proportion of karst showed a statistically significant correlation with population density values. Conclusion: Our final conclusion is that correlations between natural and population parameters are low but statistically significant in many cases, thus the basic principles of environmental possibilism are valid for the area.

environmental possibilism ; karst ; national park ; population density ; migration

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