engleski

Dynamic Modeling of Ethnic Conflicts

The paper presents two formal models of ethnic conflicts: an agent-based model of ethnic mobilization and a system-dynamics model of societal conflicts. Models are based on recent social-science theories of preconditions, causes and dynamics of ethnic violence and on experience in former Yugoslavia in last two decades. We present architecture and main models' elements, and roughly compare their dynamics with observed patterns of behavior in Yugoslav crisis. We conclude that computerized modeling of ethnic conflicts and similar complex social behavior can not predict or accurately replicate real-world events, but can help in developing and understanding relevant scientific concepts and theories.

world affairs; politics; complex societal problems; ethnic conflicts; simulation; agent-based modeling; system dynamics

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