engleski

Genetic data and species distribution modelling highlight the vulnerability of the stone crayfish in Croatia

The stone crayfish (Austropotamobius torrentium) is a native European species endangered by anthropogenically induced alteration of its habitats, climate change and invasive alien crayfish species. Diminishing populations’ trends across its distribution range highlight the importance of developing effective conservation that will ensure its long-term survival. Aiming to guide future conservation programs of the stone crayfish in Croatia, we combined population genetics and species distribution modelling (SDM) to reveal the impact of invasive signal crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) and climate change on the stone crayfish diversity. Population genetic analyses based on microsatellites revealed moderate within-population genetic diversity and high differentiation among populations, reflecting isolated populations with limited gene flow. Alongside strong genetic structuring, we discovered high level of inbreeding coefficient indicating homozygote excess within the majority of populations. The SDM results predicted substantial reductions of suitable habitats for both species by 2080 under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively describing low‐warming and high‐warming conditions. Obtained results indicated that many populations with high and/or unique genetic diversity are located in the areas predicted to become unsuitable in the future. Further, ecological niche analysis showed that stone crayfish and signal crayfish do not exploit equivalent niches in Croatia. Our study highlights the importance of conserving remnant populations and establishing new populations in areas likely to support stone crayfish in the future (climate change refugia or ark sites), by assisted migration and repopulation approaches that can help populations overcome the risks of inbreeding and maladaptation. The results of our research emphasizes once again the importance of multidisciplinary approach in the modern biodiversity conservation.

Austropotamobius torrentium ; population genetics ; conservation

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