Signals approach to crisis prediction: the case of the united states of America (CROSBI ID 719291)
Prilog sa skupa u časopisu | izvorni znanstveni rad | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Bilas, Vlatka ; Kulić, Vedran
engleski
Signals approach to crisis prediction: the case of the united states of America
The main goal of this paper is to present a signals approach to crisis forecasting and apply it to the economy of the United States of America. The signals approach takes into account the historical movement of key variables, determines potential predictors which enables a relevant comparison of significant variables before and after the global COVID-19 pandemic. Variables that have proven to be significant in the historical period have been used to create composite indices for the entire economy, but also each of the individual sectors identified as a possible source of the crisis, according to different types of crises. A total of 32 variables were selected from the relevant literature and analysed, from January 1, 1971, until the latest available data, as follows: variables related to currency or balance of payments (7 variables), banking or financial sector (10 variables), public sector (5 variables) and the wider economy (10 variables). The conducted analysis shows that a total of 19 variables recorded significantly different trends in pre-crisis times than the originally selected 32. Pre-crisis times are defined as 12 months before each peak of the economic cycle. The analysis shows that the USA economy was ready for the crisis, i.e., that significant variables did not indicate a reversal of the business cycle before the external shock. Furthermore, the results for 12 months after the shock indicate that significant variables still do not indicate a future crisis, with an important note that all composite indices increased, i.e., significantly approached the threshold which has in the past pointed to an impending disruption in the economy.
signals approach ; crisis ; COVID-19 ; USA
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
Podaci o prilogu
59-72.
2022.
nije evidentirano
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
Međunarodni znanstveni simpozij Gospodarstvo istočne Hrvatske – jučer, danas, sutra
Leko Šimić, Mirna
Osijek: Ekonomski fakultet Sveučilišta Josipa Jurja Strossmayera u Osijeku
1848-9559
Podaci o skupu
11th International Scientific Symposium Region, Entrepreneurship, Development (RED 2022)
predavanje
09.06.2022-11.06.2022
Osijek, Hrvatska