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Mass-elite Dynamics in the Crises of the European Union:Public Opinion on Immigration in Croatia and the Czech Republic before and after the Migration Crisis

The European migration crisis of 2015 has served as a catalyst for pronounced contestation of the European Union (EU). Some member states’ rejection of the EU migrant quotas was not merely a one-off decision, but can be viewed as part of broader action of national elites towards increasing the so-called transnational cleavage. Yet when wondering why certain political elites answered the crisis the way they did, the post-functionalist theory of European integration informs us that their choices should have been constrained by popular attitudes. The aim of the paper is therefore to explore how public opinion might have shaped elite responses to the migration crisis and to then explore the effect that these responses had on public opinion. To do so, it investigates two Central and Eastern European cases dissimilar in outcomes – Croatia and the Czech Republic. In order to research public opinion in these two countries, the paper utilizes two data points from the European Social Survey (ESS) covering the periods before (2008) and after (2018) the crisis. The results from 2008 show that Czechs were more apprehensive than Croats about allowing immigrants of different ethnic groups from the majority even before the crisis. Likewise, Czechs were much more likely to see immigrants as undermining the country's cultural life than Croats, who in fact leaned slightly more towards the idea of them enriching cultural life. Multiple regression analysis additionally reveals that support for further EU unification was considerably more tied to attitudes towards immigration in the Czech Republic than in Croatia even back in 2008. When comparing this with results from 2018, strong effects of politicization are observable. Perceiving immigrants as a cultural threat and reluctance towards accepting them have risen markedly in the Czech Republic. Public opinion in Croatia has, on the other hand, seemingly remained almost unchanged.

European Union, public opinion, migration crisis, politicization

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