engleski

Reliability criteria in power generation expansion planning

The starting point of security of supply and generation expansion planning analysis of today's power systems are the policies which greatly defines the organization and business environment of power systems. One of the most important EU foundation policies is the organization of a common pan-European energy market, i.e. a common electricity market. The basic idea is free movement of goods, labor force and services, since it is supposed that a member country cannot achieve alone, what it can achieve as a member of a community such as the European Union. This is supposed to be optimal and effective use of all resources, including those for electricity generation. Generally speaking, the main goals EU throughout Energy Union is to make energy more secure, affordable and sustainable. As regards Power System it means achieving internal energy market, decarbonization of technologies and security of supply. Even though these seem coherent for internal EU electricity market, they are initially opposed, insufficiently defined and therefore cause dilemmas both with experts and scientists. One such dilemma that will be dealt in this paper with is the mathematical interpretation of security of supply and the current statement that each member country is responsible for security of supply. Is the issue security of supply just a rhetorical as a relic from the era when there were vertically integrated power companies and when there was practically no market, so the relations between activities were not based on market? Or it is a real technical and organizational problem, which is the topic of discussion and base for developing theories? What does that exactly mean, what are the mathematical criteria of security of supply, what is the influence of the loss of load probability (LOLP) on the construction of new generation facilities in every single country or EU? How to achieve the functional internal EU electricity market with countries that have various shortage cost or value of lost load (VOLL) as well as different LOLP and what does it means for security of supply and economics of power systems? These are some questions discussed in this paper.

security of supply, LOLP, LOLE

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