Piracy Attacks on Ships in Navigation Through High Risk Area (HRA): Prediction Use Regression Models (CROSBI ID 716538)
Prilog sa skupa u zborniku | sažetak izlaganja sa skupa | međunarodna recenzija
Podaci o odgovornosti
Belamarić, Goran ; Čović, Maja ; Bojić, Filip ; Bošnjak, Rino
engleski
Piracy Attacks on Ships in Navigation Through High Risk Area (HRA): Prediction Use Regression Models
The objective of this study was to create a mathematical model of the threat frequency of ships subjected to pirate attacks HRA. For this purpose, data on successful pirate attacks from 2011-2020 were observed and analysed.Regression analysis aims to express or describe the relationship between the observed phenomena, the corresponding analytical - mathematical expressions, or regression model. Such a model, except to explain addiction phenomena, to predict the value of the dependent variable for the standard value of an independent or explanatory variable, depending on whether it is a simple or multiple regression in the regression model.Using linear and various forms of nonlinear regression, five models were calculated and used for prediction of possible successful pirate attacks for years 2021-2029. The models clearly confirm the decreasing trend of successful pirate attacks for ships most affected by pirate attacks (bulk carriers, crude oil tankers, passenger ships and other medium-sized vessels) and predict their further decline and possible disappearance. In addition, the one-way measure replication ANOVA together with the Bonfferoni correction revealed significant(p<0.05)differences in the extrapolated values between the high-oscillatory model and the linear and cubic models
sea pirate, regression analysis. , prediction & models
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
nije evidentirano
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Podaci o prilogu
60-60.
2021.
objavljeno
Podaci o matičnoj publikaciji
1st Kotor International Maritime Conference (KIMC) 2021
Ivošević, Špiro. ; Pejović Dževerdanović, Milena ; Đurović, Zorica ; Kordić, Stevan
Kotor: University of Montenegro, Faculty of Maritime Studies Kotor
978-86-7664-205-2
Podaci o skupu
1st Kotor International Maritime Conference (KIMC 2021)
predavanje
26.11.2021-27.11.2021
Kotor, Crna Gora