engleski

Estimation of Tasuj aquifer response to main meteorological parameter variations under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios

In this study, statistical and soft-computing methods are compared in forecasting groundwater levels under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in Tasuj Plain, Iran, for a near future period (2022– 2027). A combination of general circulation models (GCMs) was used in the projection of precipitation and temperature in the future period. The estimation of climate variables for 2020–2044 period indicated that the temperature will increase, while the precipitation will decline. In simulation temporal groundwater level, wavelet- nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous inputs (NARX), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), and wavelet-adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) models were used. The comparison of performance criteria for these models in the simulation of groundwater level demonstrated that the wavelet- NARX model with the R2 of 0.99 has shown better efciency. Finally, the simulation of groundwater level through the wavelet-NARX model was carried out for diferent scenarios. The results indicated that future groundwater levels in Tasuj Plain would continue to decline by 3.12 m, 3.96 m, and 4.79 m, for SSP1-2.6, SSP2- 4.5, and SSP5-8.5, respectively.

none

nije evidentirano