engleski

A method for forecasting the number of hospitalized and deceased based on the number of newly infected during a pandemic

In this paper we propose a phenomenological model for forecasting the numbers of deaths and of hospitalized persons in a pandemic wave, assuming that these numbers linearly depend, with certain delays τ>0 for deaths and δ>0 for hospitalized, on the number of new cases. We illustrate the application of our method using data from the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Croatia, but the method can be applied to any new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to any other possible pandemic. We also supply freely available Mathematica modules to implement the method.

pandemic ; COVID-19 ; growth models ; global optimization least squares

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